Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
